The US gave India a 30-day pass to buy sanctioned Russian oil. That pass expired at 12:01 a.m. this morning. The waiver only ever covered oil already floating at sea before March 5, it was never a long-term solution. India scrambled, bought roughly 30 million barrels while the window was open, and now has to figure out what comes next.
The Americas are an option. Hoping Washington looks the other way is another. Neither is great. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. India imports 85% of its crude. The math isn’t comfortable. (S&P Global, CNBC)
🏦 Dubai just bought itself a piece of Indian banking. The RBI said yes.
Emirates NBD - Dubai’s government-backed banking giant got RBI approval this week to acquire up to 74% of RBL Bank for $3 billion. The largest foreign investment ever made in an Indian bank. RBL gets a massive capital injection and access to a global balance sheet. Emirates NBD gets a fast track into one of the world’s fastest-growing banking markets without building from scratch.
One catch: voting rights are capped at 26% under Indian banking regulations, so they’ll own the bank but not entirely run it their way. SEBI clearance is still pending. If this closes as expected by June, it sets a blueprint every foreign bank will be watching. (Business Standard, Gulf News)
💰 The government is pulling out a Covid-era playbook. This time for the war.
Remember ECLGS? The emergency credit scheme from Covid? No? Neither do we, honestly. It was the thing that kept millions of small businesses alive during lockdowns with 100% collateral-free loans backed by the government. The government is dusting off that exact model.
A new scheme worth ₹2–2.5 lakh crore is being finalised for businesses getting squeezed by war-driven cost spikes in inputs and logistics. Announcement expected in two weeks. The economy isn’t in crisis yet. The government is clearly not waiting around to find out. (Economic Times)
🏙️ GIFT City is having a moment. A quiet, consequential one.
Insurance premiums at GIFT City went from $102 million in 2020 to $1.2 billion in 2025. That’s 11x in five years. Lloyd’s of London is there now. So are Allianz and Generali. And from April 1, any mutual fund or ETF parked in Singapore or Mauritius can relocate to GIFT City completely tax-free, zero capital gains on the move.
India has been trying to pull fund management back onshore for years. This rule change might actually move the needle. Singapore is paying attention. (BusinessToday, GIFT City press release)
📊 Markets: A week of watching Trump’s mood swings.
Sensex dropped 2.54% and Nifty slipped 1.5% over the week. The pattern was embarrassingly consistent - Trump hints at winding down the war, markets bounce. Trump threatens to send Iran “back to the Stone Age”, markets fall 2%.
Markets were closed yesterday for Good Friday and reopen Monday with a full weekend of war news to process. TCS and Infosys report earnings next week. That’ll either give investors something else to focus on or pile on. (Business Standard)
On a different note - ⚓ India commissioned a nuclear submarine yesterday.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh posted a single line on X yesterday: “It’s not words but power - Aridhaman!”. Sources confirmed: INS Aridhaman, India’s third nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, is now operational.
It carries eight missile tubes - double that of its predecessors - and can deploy K-4 missiles with a range of 3,500 km. The strategic point is simple: with three submarines, India can now keep one at sea at all times. That’s continuous nuclear deterrence. Only a handful of countries operate at that level. India just joined them, with a submarine it designed and built entirely at home.
Today’s Quiz 🧠
Yesterday's answer: B.
When the RBI banned offshore rupee derivative contracts, it cut off the main tool foreign investors use to protect against currency risk while investing in India. Short term, it stopped the speculative sell-off and gave the rupee a lift. Longer term, investors who can't hedge their India exposure cheaply will demand higher returns or simply invest less here. That's the trade-off the RBI accepted.
Today's question:
The US waiver allowing Indian refiners to buy Russian oil expired this morning. Which of the following is the most immediate risk India now faces?
A. Petrol pump prices double within the week
B. Refineries begin drawing down strategic reserves, reducing India’s buffer from ~60 days to under 45
C. The rupee falls sharply as crude import costs spike on spot markets
D. Fertiliser production halts within the week due to feedstock shortages
(Answer Monday)