India kicked off its first census since 2011, when the population was 121 crore (1.21 billion). It is now estimated at over 140 crore (1.4 billion). Every welfare scheme, every parliamentary seat, every infrastructure plan for the next decade has been running on data that is 15 years old. That ends today.

Over 33 lakh (3.3 million) government officials will fan out across the country over the next year. This census is also fully digital for the first time, with residents able to self-submit via a smartphone app. The bigger news: it will include a full caste count, the first since 1931 under British rule. Politically loaded, overdue, and long overdue. The data coming out of this will reshape Indian policy for a generation (Bloomberg, AP).

🔴 Oracle fired 12,000 people in India. Via email. Before breakfast.

On March 31, Oracle employees across Bengaluru and Hyderabad woke up to a five-line email from "Oracle Leadership." No warning, no HR call, no manager conversation. Role eliminated, effective immediately, system access cut within minutes. Globally, Oracle cut up to 30,000 employees, roughly 18% of its workforce (PTI, Bloomberg — figures based on employee accounts, not officially confirmed by Oracle).

The kicker? Oracle just posted a 95% jump in net income last quarter. This is not a struggling company. It is a profitable one making a massive AI infrastructure bet and cutting people to fund it. Another round is reportedly coming within a month. India's already quiet tech hiring market just got a lot more crowded.

🌍 Trump wants out of Iran. And possibly NATO too.

Trump told Reuters the US would be out of the Iran war "pretty quickly," potentially within two to three weeks, even without a formal deal. He addressed the nation last night with what the White House called an "important update."

The bigger story is NATO. Trump told Britain's Telegraph he is "beyond reconsidering" US membership, furious that European allies refused to join the Iran war. A US exit would effectively end NATO as we know it. Spain closed its airspace to US military planes, Italy blocked US bombers from a base in Sicily, and the UK is walking a careful line. For India, a fractured NATO reshapes the entire global security equation. It gives Russia more room, pushes Europe to rearm fast, and scrambles the alliances that underpin global trade. Worth watching closely (AP, PBS).

⛽ Jet fuel doubled. Then the government changed its mind. Same day.

State-owned Indian Oil Corp set aviation turbine fuel prices for April at a record 207,341 rupees per kilolitre, essentially doubling the rate overnight. Airlines panicked. Within hours, the government revised it down to 104,927 rupees for domestic routes.

International carriers do not get that relief and will pay the full hike, which stings given the West Asia crisis has already pushed up fuel costs and rerouted flights across the region. The underlying problem has not gone away. Oil markets are volatile, the Strait of Hormuz is partially blocked, and jet fuel is structurally more expensive than a year ago. Any airline planning expansion right now is doing so on shaky ground.

✈️ More private airports are coming. Here is why that is good news.

India has been quietly handing over airport operations to private companies under long-term government partnerships. Adani currently runs seven of India's eight privatised airports, including Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, and Lucknow.

The results are showing. Private airports have posted strong cargo growth and faster turnaround times compared to most government-run facilities. The tradeoff is that private operators charge more for parking and retail. But for a country that needs serious aviation infrastructure fast, the private route is working. Expect more of this (AAI, Logistics Insider).

On a different note - ☀️ India's summers are getting unbearable. Someone's going to make a lot of money from that.

Only about 10% of Indian households own an AC. In the US, it is over 90%. Now factor in rising incomes and summers that get measurably hotter every year. India could add tens of millions of first-time AC buyers over the next decade.

But this is not just a consumer story. More ACs means more peak electricity demand, more strain on state power grids, and a structural rise in India's energy consumption. The real winners might not be the AC brands. Think electricity distributors, inverter makers, and everyone building the infrastructure to power it all.

Today’s Quiz 🧠

Yesterday's answer: B. +2%

Your portfolio returned 12% in rupee terms, but the rupee fell 10% against the dollar. Currency loss eats into your returns, so your real USD return is roughly 12% minus 10%, which gives you approximately +2%. This is why Indian investors in global funds always watch the rupee. The returns look great in rupees and a lot less exciting in dollars.

Today's question:

Oracle just cut 40% of its India workforce to fund AI infrastructure. Which sector is most likely to absorb these displaced workers in the short term?

A. Government and public sector IT

B. Indian SaaS startups and mid-size tech firms

C. IT services giants like Infosys, TCS, and Wipro

D. None quickly, the market is too subdued right now

(Answer tomorrow)

Rational Capital

The 5-minute business brief for the smart Indian professional. If this made you think, share it with someone who should be reading this too.

Subscribe at rationalcapital.in

Keep Reading